Tšireletso ea mohlape bakeng sa Covid-19 ho boleloa hore e ka finyelloa ha 67% ea baahi is immune ho kokoana-hloko ka tšoaetso le/kapa ho entoa, ha kokoana-hloko e ntse e tsebahala hantle (e sa feto-fetohe) ho pholletsa le phetiso ho baahi ba khetholloang hantle. Tabeng ea ts'oaetso ea SARS CoV-2, katleho ea ho itšireletsa ha mehlape ke phephetso ka lebaka la ho hlaha ha mefuta e mecha ea matšoenyeho (VoC), e lebisang ho hore VoC e se ke ea arabela ho li-antibodies tse hlahisoang khahlanong le khatello ea motsoali. Lintlha li bonts'a hore Isiraele e kanna ea fihlela ts'ireletso ea mehlape kaha e fihletse palo ea 67.7% ea baahi ba sa sireletsehang ha UKmmune palo ea baahi ke 53.9% mme ea USA ke 50.5%. Leha ho na le sekhahla se phahameng sa ts'oaetso Brazil qalong, ts'ireletso ea mehlape ha e so fihlelle. Sena se fana ka maikutlo a hore sechaba se lokela ho latela ho arohana sechabeng, ho hlapa matsoho le ho roala limaske le litataiso tsa ho notlolla le ho nolofatsa lithibelo li lokela ho nahanoa ka hloko ho thibela koluoa e 'ngoe hape. Covid-19.
E le ho fihlela boemo bo "tloaelehileng" lefats'e le ne le le pele hoCovid-19, tšireletso ea mehlape e hloka ho ntlafatsoa ka har'a baahi e tla lumella batho ho tsoa le ho solla ka bolokolohi joaloka pele. Ho itšireletsa ha mehlape ho ka finyelloa ke batho ba tšoaelitsoeng ka tlhaho ke kokoana-hloko kapa ka ho enta karolo e itseng ea batho. Ha re shebeng hore na ente le ts'oaetso ha li kopane li ka lebisa ts'ireletsong ea mehlape joang 'me tsa re khutlisetsa bophelong bo se nang limaske le boiketlo ba sechaba boo re neng re bo phela pejana.
Herd immune1, 2 e bua ka khakanyo ea hore na ke batho ba bakae ba lokelang ho entoa kapa ba tšoaelitsoeng ho tiisa hore kokoana-hloko ha e sa fetisetsoa ho batho. Sena se bolela hore ha ho sa na batho ba hlaselehang habonolo ba tla fumana ts'oaetso le ho e phatlalatsa ho ea pele. Le hoja ho itšireletsa ha mehlape (PI, karolo ea batho ba sa khoneng ho itšireletsa mafung) e ka baloa ho latela mokhoa o bonolo oa lipalo1, 2, BAKENG SAI = 1-1/Ro, moo Ro (“R-naught”) e bolela palo ya dikotsi tsa bobedi tse bakilweng ke tshwaetso, hape e bitswang nomoro ya motheo ya ho ikatisa ha tshwaetso e etsahala ka immunologically naïve. baahi (baahi ba e-so tšoaetsoe kapa ba sa entoa ke kokoana-hloko). Tabeng ea SARS CoV-2, Ro ho hakanngoa hore e ka ba 3, ho bolelang hore motho ka mong o tla tšoaetsa batho ba ka bang 33, 4. Ha re kenya sena ka mokhoa o ka holimo re fumana PI palo ea 0.67 e bolelang hore haeba 67% ea baahi e tšoaelitsoe kapa / kapa e entoa, ho boleloa hore tšireletso ea mehlape e fihlile.
Na seo se bolela hore linaha tse kang Iseraele li fihletse ts'ireletso ea mehlape joalo ka 67.7% (58.2% e entetsoeng ka botlalo hammoho le 9.5% e tšoaelitsoeng) ea baahi ba Iseraele5 ha linaha tse kang UK le USA li tla fumana boits'ireletso ba mehlape hang ha 67% ea baahi ba bona ba tšoaelitsoe kapa / kapa ba entoa, eo hajoale e leng 53.9% (47.3% e entetsoeng ka botlalo le 6.6% e tšoaelitsoeng) UK6, le 50.5% (40.5% e entetsoeng ka botlalo hammoho le 10% e tšoaelitsoeng) USA7?
Ho thata ho araba potso ena hobane lipalo tsa ho itšireletsa ha mehlape (PI) e itšetlehile ka maikutlo a hore kokoana-hloko e tsebahala hantle 'me e tšoaetsa batho ba nang le mekhoa e metle. Ka bomalimabe, ka bobeli ha se 'nete tabeng ena kaha sena ke kokoana-hloko e ncha 'me batho ba tšoaelitsoeng ba fapane haholo. E thatafalloa le ho feta ke taba ea hore ho na le mefuta e mecha ea vaerase ea SARS CoV-2 e hlahang sechabeng e ka arabelang kapa ea se ke ea arabela ente ka mokhoa o ts'oanang le mofuta oa vaerase oa mantlha oo ente e entsoeng khahlanong le ona. Ho feta moo, mefuta e mecha ea kokoana-hloko ha e tšoane le ho ama linaha tsohle. Leha UK e na le mofuta oa B.1.1.7 haholo, India, Singapore le linaha tse ling li na le mofuta oa B1.617, Brazil e na le mofuta oa B.1.351, P.1 le P.2 ha Middle East e na le mofuta oa B.1.351 ho ho phaella ho tse ling. Na hoo ho bolela hore batho ba bangata ba tšoaetsoa ke mefuta e mecha ho sa tsotelehe hore ba entoa khahlanong le mofuta oa pele o sutumelletsang R?o ho isa palo e phahameng? ARo ea 5 e ne e tla bolela hore karolo ea 80 lekholong ea baahi e lokela ho sireletseha ho thibela tšoaetso e eketsehileng. Leha ho le joalo, linaha tsena (Israel, UK le USA) li se li qalile ho notlolla le ho tlosa lithibelo tse ipapisitseng le taba ea hore bonyane 50% ea baahi ba tsona ba entoa ka botlalo. Na e sa le qalong haholo maemong a UK le USA joalo ka ha PI ha e e-s'o fihle esita le 67% ho latela lipalo tse bonolo tse nang le maikutlo a boletsoeng ka holimo? Iseraele e ntse e ka ithorisa ka hore e fihlile palo ena. Leha ho le joalo, ho bile le keketseho ea palo ea linyeoe UK bekeng ena ka 23.3% (ha e bapisoa le bekeng e fetileng) ka keketseho e tšoanang ea batho ba shoang.6, ha a ntse a le USA, ho bile le phokotseho ea palo ea linyeoe ka 22% bekeng ena7 (ha ho bapisoa le beke e fetileng). Lintlha tsa likhoeli tse 'maloa tse tlang li tla etsa qeto ea hore na qeto ea linaha tsena ea ho bula le ho phahamisa lithibelo e ne e nepahetse kapa che?
Ka lintlha tsena kaofela tse amanang le ho rarahana ha kokoana-hloko (mefuta e fapaneng) hammoho le ho fapana ha baahi, ho ke ke ha khoneha ho bolela esale pele P e nepahetseng.I palo. Ho bohlokoa ho bua mona ka sekhahla sa ts'oaetso naheng ea Brazil, e leng e 'ngoe ea linaha tse anngoeng hampe ka ho fetesisa methating ea pele ea ts'oaetso ea COVID-19. Leha ho na le liperesente tse phahameng tsa seroprevalence e hakantsoeng (76%).11 Manaus le 70% Peru12, ka bobeli ba bona leqhubu le matla la bobeli. Le hoja sena se ka 'na sa bakoa ke boiketlo ba lithibelo le likhetho tse ileng tsa tšoaroa, lintlha tse ling tse ngata li ka ikarabella bakeng sa se tšoanang. E 'ngoe e ka ba ho feta tekano ea seroprevalence e ileng ea hlokomeloa e le 52.5% ka June 2020. Ea bobeli e ka ba ho hlaha ha mefuta e mecha le e fetang e fetisetsoang (P.1, P.2, B.1.351, B.1.1.7), e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe e na le sete ea eona e ikhethang ea liphetoho tse bakang lefu le matla haholo. Taba ea boraro, boteng ba liphetoho tsena le bona bo ka lebisa ho qobeng karabelo ea 'mele ea ho itšireletsa mafung e hlahisoang khahlano le mofuta oa pele.12.
Potso e 'ngoe e mabapi le katleho ea liente tse teng hona joale ho latela tšireletso eo ba ka fanang ka eona. Ho hakanngoa ka karolelano hore katleho ea ente mabapi le tšireletso khahlanong le lefu ke 72%8 ho bolelang hore ho na le monyetla oa 28% oa hore motho a shoe le ka mor'a ho entoa ka botlalo (kamora ho noa litekanyetso tse hlokahalang tsa ente). Haholo-holo, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 e ile ea sebetsa ka 85% kamora tekanyetso e le 'ngoe ha ente ea Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1-S e ne e sebetsa ka 80% kamora lethal dose le le leng.9. Liente tsena ka bobeli li ne li boetse li sebetsa khahlanong le mofuta oa B.1.1.79. Ntlha e 'ngoe ea bohlokoa eo u lokelang ho e hopola mona ke hore ho entoa ha ho bolele hore u ke ke ua tšoaetsoa ke kokoana-hloko, ho bolela hore u tla sireletsoa joalokaha ho boletsoe ka holimo 'me u tla ba le matšoao a bonolo kapa a se nang letho a lefu lena. Ntle le moo, ha ho na bopaki ba hore boits'ireletso bo fanoang ke ts'oaetso le / kapa liente tse khahlano le SARS CoV-2 li tšoarella nako e telele kapa che?10 Sena se bolela hore ho hlokahala hore ho be le leihlo le nepahetseng 'me lenaneo la ente le ka 'na la hloka ho atolosoa haeba ho ka ba joalo.
Ho phaella ho phihlello ea ho itšireletsa mafung ho latela palo ea batho ka ts'oaetso le ka lebaka la ente e felletseng, batho ba bang ba ntse ba ka ameha le ho kula kapa ho shoa ho bakoang ke COVID-19. Batho ba joalo ba ka tsejoa ho sebelisoa Electronic Health Records (EHRs) le ho fana ka tlhokomelo e nepahetseng ea thibelo joalokaha ho hlalositsoe13.
Ka bokhutšoanyane, ho bolela esale pele ho itšireletsa ha mehlape bakeng sa SARS CoV-2 ke phephetso e ke keng ea hlōloa ka lebaka la mofuta oa liphetoho tse fumanoeng ke vaerase tse etsang hore e fetisetsoe haholoanyane hammoho le bongata ba batho ba tšoaelitsoeng. Ho nahanoa hore ho fihlela Ro e atamela kapa e ka tlase ho 1 (seo se bolelang ho fumana ts'ireletso ea mehlape ea 100%), sechaba se lokela ho tsoelapele ho latela mehato ea ho ikarola sechabeng, ho hlapa matsoho neng kapa neng ha ho khonahala le ho roala limaske phatlalatsa ho qoba tšoaetso ea lefu lena. Sena se bolela hore linaha li lokela ho nahana ka botlalo pele li nka qeto ea ho theola lithibelo pele li ka fihlela 100% ea ho itšireletsa ha mehlape (ka lehlakoreng le sireletsehileng) ho qoba liketsahalo tse mpe tse bakiloeng ke COVID-19.
***
References
- Maikutlo a McDermott A. Core: Ho itšireletsa ha mehlape ke ntho ea bohlokoa—’me hangata e sa utloisisoeng—e leng ketsahalo ea bophelo bo botle ba sechaba. Proc. Natl. Akad. Sci. 118 (21), (2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2107692118
- Kadkhoda K. Herd Immunity to COVID-19: Alluring and Elusive, American Journal of Clinical Pathology, 155 (4), 471-472, (2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcp/aqaa272
- Liu Y, Gayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J. Palo ea pelehi ea COVID-19 e holimo ha e bapisoa le coronavirus ea SARS. J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 13;27(2): taaa021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa021 . PMID: 32052846; PMCID: PMC7074654.
- Billh MA, Miah, M M, Khan M N. Palo ea ho ikatisa ea coronavirus: Tlhahlobo e hlophisitsoeng le tlhahlobo ea meta e thehiloeng bopaking ba boemo ba lefats'e. PLoS One 15, (2020). E phatlalalitsoe: November 11, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242128
- Lekala la Bophelo 'Muso oa Iseraele. Phatlalatso ea boralitaba - Isiraele ho Phahamisa Lithibelo Tsohle tsa Coronavirus. Letsatsi la Phatlalatso 23.05.2021. E fumaneha inthaneteng ho https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/23052021-02
- Gov.UK - Coronavirus (COVID-19) naheng ea UK. E fumaneha inthaneteng ho https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
- CDC COVID Data Tracker - Liente tsa COVID-19 United States. E fumaneha inthaneteng ho https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
- Jablonska K, Aballea S, Toumi M. Tšusumetso ea 'nete ea bophelo ea ente ho lefu la COVID-19 Europe le Israel medRxiv (2021). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.26.21257844
- Katleho ea liente tsa Pfizer-BioNTech le Oxford-AstraZeneca matšoao a amanang le covid-19, ho amoheloa sepetlele, le lefu ho batho ba baholo England: tlhahlobo e mpe ea taolo ea linyeoe BMJ, 373, (2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1088
- Pennington TH Herd immune immune: na e ka felisa seoa sa COVID-19? Future Microbiology, 16 (6), (2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2217/fmb-2020-0293
- Bese LF, Prete CA, Abrahim CM M et al. Sekhahla sa tlhaselo ea kotara ea SARS-CoV-2 naheng ea Amazon ea Brazil nakong ea seoa se neng se sa tsitsa. Saense. 371, 288-292, (2020). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe9728
- Sabino E., Buss L., et al. 2021. Ho qaleha hape ha COVID-19 Manaus, Brazil, leha ho na le ts'oaetso e phahameng. (2021). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5
- Estiri H., Strasser ZH, Klann JG et al. Ho bolela esale pele ka lefu la COVID-19 ka lirekoto tsa elektroniki tsa bongaka. npj Dijiti. Med. La 4, 15 (2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00383-x
***